🔗 Share this article

A decade after the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that split the country and unleashed turmoil, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

Policymakers and citizens drifted into Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is prepared.

That represents the warning from two prominent writers from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Establishments Not Ready

Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially tense and transformative referendum.

"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our region remains extremely volatile."

New Title Intends to Stir Debate

The pair have studied the political, financial and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to provoke discussion on the issue with a roadshow of speaking events that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What troubles all parties, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.

"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extraordinarily split population where the losing side are resistant to losing and the victorious side lack clarity precisely what it is that they have achieved."

Governmental Mandate

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would support.

Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is looming, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the likelihood, leaving it unclear if and when there might be a national vote.

Absence of Informed Dialogue

Political rhetoric for and against unity has obscured the shortage of informed dialogue, said McBride.

"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to realise it has largely not occurred. A great deal has gone on in universities but scarcely any elected officials or activists seek to involve themselves with even the basics. As an example, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"

Volume's Strategy

In the publication, neither author advocates unity or the current situation. Both authors two essays that strive for impartiality in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling financial and social figures, previous instances and governmental frameworks.

Debates range over national emblems, levies, health services, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of loyalist violence. The objective is to enlighten and encourage dialogue.

"There's huge interest in the topic but there is still lacking a debate," said the writer. "Debate implies an acknowledgement of the concept that there may exist reasonable perspectives on each side."

Parallel Votes

A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they prefer unification but reject increased taxation or adopting a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.

"Policymakers in Ireland must establish what the plan from pro-unification movements is aside from just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.

Possibility of Referendum

The journalist considers a referendum in his era is probable and that it might occur suddenly. "You could have just a mad or a bad or a incompetent official who says: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"

Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified arguments, he commented. "Somebody will win in this matter and the other side will eventually be defeated but each side has got something to learn from the opposing positions."

Call for Wider Debate

Westminster must engage with the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish issue."